The Open Source Interest Horizon

Clay Shirky writes about the Open Source interest horizon (one of the limiting factors) and the future of open source, providing the building blocks from which customised systems are built.

"This is the future of Open Source. As the edges of the interest horizon become clear, the market for products will shrink and the market for customization will grow: Expect the Computer Associates of the world to begin training their employees in the use and customization of Open Source products. With Open Source software putting core set of functions in place, software companies will become more like consulting firms and consulting firms will become more like software companies, not duplicating the same basic functions over and over, but concentrating their efforts on the work that lies over the interest horizon."

I agree, using the analogy of the architect from civil engineering. Consider building a new bridge, three architects will produce three different designs, but each will be proven to satisfy the requirements because the underlying core components are well understood. For civil engineering this comes from standards, professional indemnification, laws of physics etc. The chosen design could well be the most aesthetically pleasing design or the one considered the best fit with the environment. The point being that the decision can be based on intangibles, qualitative variables, because the core functionality is a given.
With dependable open source components or building blocks, the software architects of the future will be able to produce alternative designs that meet the same underlying need or set of requirements. They can concentrate on the customization, on demonstrating that they best understand the customers wants and needs. The customers get the real benefit because they will be able to choose a customized system that they really want from a valid set of competing and mostly equal options.
In the absence of hard and fast rules and standards for software components, open source commodity components can provide defacto standards.
The crucial element, is that these components grow out of a need to solve a real problem in context; the problem is at the heart of the solution.

Clay cites the interest horizon as one of the limiting factors of open source. I am no sure I agree, interest is one of the key motivators, but as the value of the model becomes apparent to more stake holders, interest will grow in all sorts of small groups and niche markets. I think open source will become a core activity of most professional software developers, it will be their day job rather than a hobby. Their interest will be maintained by a salary at the end of the week.
Like the architect, the software engineers real skill will be in integration and customisation. Understand the real requirements of the system, providing domain knowledge and finally bridging the casm between customer needs and service deliverables. The fact that new code artifacts are added to the public domain as a result will just be a nice side effect.
The future with open source building blocks is bright.